Scotland in Europe update: November 4th 2016

Well it has been a busy week where the headline was expected to be that Theresa May met with European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker this morning (www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37868987). However, this has been overshadowed by the English High Court Judgement stating that the initiation of Article 50 will require the assent of the House of Commons and House of Lords. This is not necessarily the end of it as the UK Government will certainly appeal to the Supreme Court, but if it stands it will certainly change the terms of the negotiation.

The High Court ruling can be read here:
www.judiciary.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/judgment-r-miller-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-eu-20161103.pdf

The Institute for Government has produced a handy Q&A on what this means.
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/14858/the-high-courts-ruling-v-the-governments-plan-to-trigger-article-50/
At this stage it is too soon to say anything definitive but Jolyon Maugham QC, has written an insightful analysis on the potential impact.
ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/11/03/2178734/after-the-high-courts-brexit-decision-forget-about-activating-article-50-in-march/
And Steve Peers has undertaken some analysis of the potential for the European Court of Justice to end up ruling on parts of this case.
eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/brexit-can-ecj-get-involved.html
The Peterson Institute for International Economics has looked into how this ruling could impact on the final deal.
piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/will-hard-brexit-be-defeated-spirit-magna-carta

Meanwhile Europe has watched and wondered. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung has pondered on how the Prime Minister has managed to manoeuvre herself into this position (in German).
www.fr-online.de/brexit/brexit-schwere-schlappe-fuer-mays-regierung,34340058,34910186.html
The French paper Les Echos comemplates whether this is enough to sink Brexit? (In French).
www.lesechos.fr/monde/europe/0211456507475-le-parlement-britannique-va-devoir-voter-sur-le-lancement-du-brexit-2040049.php
And perhaps more realistically the Italian paper Il Mondo has argued that this changes the terms of the debate. (In Italian).
www.ilsole24ore.com/art/mondo/2016-11-03/l-alta-corte-londra-brexit-deve-decidere-parlamento-111353.shtml?uuid=ADiUhYoB

‘Brexit to test UK’s constitution and institutions to the limit’ is the conclusion of a number of leading academics.
ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-to-test-uks-constitution-and-institutions-to-the-limit-warn-leading-academics/
Their full report entitled ‘How the United Kingdom might leave the European Union’ outlines the complicated process ahead.
ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Brexit-and-Beyond-how-the-UK-might-leave-the-EU.pdf

Last week it was Ireland and this week Hungary put in their bid to host the European Banking authority.
bbj.hu/economy/hungary-bids-to-host-eba-after-brexit_124171

My column on how the Iran nuclear breakthrough proves EU diplomacy beats the UK's flag-waving.
www.thenational.scot/politics/alyn-smith-iran-nuclear-breakthrough-proves-eu-diplomacy-beats-the-uks-flag-waving.24227

Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny has warned that the Brexit negations could be “quite vicious”.
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/brexit-talks-may-well-get-quite-vicious-irish-pm-kenny-warns

The best outcome of the Brexit talks is to avoid it entirely is the conclusion of the Council of Economic Experts to the German Government
www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-germany-advisors-idUSKBN12X1K0

Gérard Rameix, who sits on the board of the European Securities and Markets Authority, said its UK representatives had a new set of priorities since the referendum.
www.ft.com/content/418f20f2-9cf6-11e6-8324-be63473ce146

The USA will not be riding to the rescue of dear old Blighty according to the Centre for European Reform.
www.cer.org.uk/insights/not-so-special-why-us-wont-help-britain-brexit-talks

Jonathan Portes has written a piece showing that the Nissan deal raises more questions that it answers.
www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/nissan-brexit-and-industrial-strategy

Crispin Odey, backer of the Vote Leave campaign, told his clients "The stock market could fall by 80%."
uk.businessinsider.com/crispin-odey-letter-to-clients-on-brexit-recession-higher-inflation-2016-11

In better news it seams that Theresa May is at least seriously considering trying to remain in Europol.
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-has-decided-to-opt-into-eu-crime-fighting-measures-risking-anger-of-brexit-tory-mps-a7391666.html